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Iraq in Peril: Another Civil War on the Horizon?

The successful blitzkrieg campaign through Northern and Central Iraq by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, prognosticates perilous days ahead for a country constantly fractured by sectarian violence.

The capture of oil-rich Mosul and Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, raises an unprecedented security challenge to Nouri Al-Maliki’s Shia-led government.

What is transpiring as a melting away of Iraqi troops in the aforementioned cities before the menacing militias has raised serious questions about the capability of the Iraqi troops to defend their remaining territories and, more importantly, their commitment to safeguarding the future of the Republic of Iraq.

Boasting as many as 10,000 fighters, ISIS may well be the most dangerous and formidable militant group operating against the Iraqi government today.

As its name suggests, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) is not in the business of participating in the democratic process of the Republic of Iraq, but instead is bent on replacing that republic with a theocratic one (and later an Islamist emirate that straddles Iraq and Syria).

But it is not a theocratic pluralistic Islamic state that ISIS seeks to establish; it vows to establish a Sunni Salafi-jihadist, anti-Shia state in Iraq—a country where close to 70% of its population is Shia Muslims.

Thus, it is no coincidence that everything that follows is a pretty straightforward synnecrosis relationship between the two warring sides.

As the weaker side, ISIS would employ asymmetric, protracted warfare to unnerve and slowly undermine the Iraqi government at every turn, while patiently waiting to inflict the final blow to end the Republic.

On the other hand, the Iraqi government swears to obliterate the sinister group and its aspirations once and for all.

It seems apparent that until the end of 2013, the American-trained Iraqi troops were outwardly winning the war against multifarious inimical groups in the country—a commendable feat considering the U.S. troops had withdrawn two years prior.

But early this year, with the capture of the volatile city of Fallujah, the tide of war has steadily shifted to ISIS.

Recent ISIS exploits, particularly the seizing of Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, before barreling south to take the city of Tikrit, demonstrate that ISIS is on the offensive; and the group is now seemingly more dangerous and potent than ever.

Some even venture to label ISIS as the most dangerous militant group in the world.

Notwithstanding the label, ISIS is unequivocally more pernicious for the simple reason that its core members are learning from previous fatal mistakes.

Specifically, they are avoiding alienating Sunni tribal groups, a strategy that under the draconian leadership of Zarqawi, when they were aligned with Al-Qaeda, nearly caused their downfall.

They realize more than ever that alienating any Sunni groups or attacking them for slight differences or peccadillos is counterproductive at best, and suicidal at worst.

Instead, they now exploit the seemingly irreparable Sunni-Shia schism (and by extension, between the Shia-led government and the minority Sunni community) to recruit bellicose Sunni members, all the while projecting their images as guardians of the Sunni community.

Having a capable, seasoned, and purportedly homegrown Sunni leader known only by his nom de guerre, Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi, serves to broaden the group’s appeal and legitimacy over disgruntled Sunnis over Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s supposed bias in favor of the Shia majority.

Furthermore, the presence of the group in Syria, which currently serves as the hotbed of Sunni-Jihadis, enables it to recruit an influx of foreign fighters seeking martyrdom and to resupply weapons.

After ISIS seized Mosul a few days ago, its members looted $425 million from the city’s central bank.

Now that the group has the manpower, weapons, and wherewithal to sustain heavy showdowns against the Iraqi troops, the question is now whether the latter would be ready to meet that arduous challenge.

Iraqi troops alone won’t be able to challenge ISIS’s unabated advance toward Baghdad, let alone recapture lost territories.

Waiting until Sunni tribal groups in seized cities such as Mosul, Tikrit, and others revolt and repel ISIS, just like they did with its predecessor Al-Qaeda in Iraq, due to maladministration, albeit possible, would only serve to enervate the credibility and legitimacy of the current administration.

To stay in power, or to appear to still be in power, Prime Minister Al-Maliki must inevitably act.

The good news for him is that he is not alone in this.

The U.S. and Iran have signaled their intention to assist.

Irrespective of the external assistance, it is clear that the Iraqi troops are ultimately the ones who must fight the ground battles, since the others probably won’t.

Hence, Prime Minister Al-Maliki and his commanders must succeed, first and foremost, in galvanizing the morale of their troops to combat ISIS, lest they simply melt away and flee like what happened in Mosul.

For the Maliki government, this imminent war is a must-win for the preservation of the Republic.

For the ISIS members, there is no such thing as abandoning their so-called jihad; it is either die in battle or live for another battle.

So what is it going to be this time, a democratic, despotic, or theocratic state?

No one knows for sure.

Yet one thing is sure as hell: For the Iraqi people, another disastrous civil war is looming ever so close on the ominous horizon.

* This article was previously published in June 2014

@hamdan.hamedan on Instagram
SUN TZU (DAN PRESIDEN)

Ahli strategi Sun Tzu pernah diminta oleh Raja Helu untuk mendidik kedisiplinan dan keteraturan di lingkungan istana. Sang ahli strategi pun menyanggupi.

Sun Tzu lalu memberi instruksi yang jelas: ketika drum dipukul, seluruh pegawai harus bergerak menuju arah yang ditentukan—kiri, kanan, maju, atau mundur.

Rupanya ada beberapa pegawai yang mengabaikan. Sun Tzu pun mengingatkan lagi dengan jelas agar mereka mengikuti arahan, tapi lagi-lagi sebagian pegawai lancang mengabaikan.

Sun Tzu lalu berkata, “Jika instruksi dari atasan tidak jelas, maka kesalahan ada pada atasan. Tapi jika instruksi dari atasan sudah jelas dan tetap tak diikuti, maka kesalahan ada pada bawahan.”

Dengan itu, Sun Tzu langsung memerintahkan pegawai yang mengabaikan instruksinya untuk dihukum.

Menariknya, ketika Sun Tzu memukul drum kembali, seluruh pegawai kini langsung mengikutinya dengan baik.

Dengan ketegasan itu, Sun Tzu mengajarkan bahwa kepatuhan terhadap perintah yang jelas dan baik (righteous) bukanlah pilihan, tetapi kewajiban.

Hari ini, Bapak Presiden @prabowo mengikuti prinsip serupa. Beliau telah menggariskan arah yang jelas dan baik: tak ada toleransi untuk penyelundupan, narkoba, korupsi, dan judi.

Ini bukan sekadar arahan; ini adalah panggilan untuk bergerak bersama guna melindungi bangsa kita dari kanker yang menggerogoti.

Arahan ini tak perlu ditafsirkan lagi, hanya perlu diimplementasi—untuk Indonesia yang maju dan lestari.
RUGI J*D*

Kumparan memberitakan: akibat kalah j*d* online, seorang pria begal taksi online demi tebus motor selingkuhan. 

Iya, Anda tak salah baca. Sudah seabsurd itu dampak j*d* ini. 

Rugi adalah konsekuensi logis dari j*d*. Pasalnya, sistemnya telah diakali agar pemain kalah — lebih dari 80% probabilitas setiap kali main.

Dan mending hanya kalah finansial, seringkali j*d* berdampak pada keretakan keluarga. Ini rugi dunia- akhirat, namanya. 

Oleh karenanya, ada pepatah mengatakan, “Orang yang betul-betul menang dalam j*d* adalah yang TIDAK PERNAH MULAI berj*d*.
ILMU PARFUM

Pepatah mengatakan, “Parfum yang harum bersumber dari bunga yang beragam dan proses yang saksama.”

Ya, parfum yang sempurna tak bisa muncul tiba-tiba. 

Setiap esensi—baik bunga, rempah, maupun kayu—dipilih dengan teliti dari berbagai tempat, melewati proses pencampuran yang cermat guna menciptakan harmoni aroma yang khas.

Parfum yang berkualitas tak bisa diburu-buru. Komposisinya perlu waktu untuk saling menyatu.

Aroma juga butuh waktu untuk meresap dan menetap di kulit. 

Saat parfum itu akhirnya dikenakan, keharumannya tak hanya semerbak tercium, tapi juga meninggalkan kesan yang mendalam—buah dari proses “unity in diversity” yang tak terburu-buru.

Ilmu pafum jelas berbeda dengan ilmu cabai: begitu digigit, langsung pedas.

Postingan ini bukan tentang parfum.
PANGAN

“Mesir Kuno makmur dan mampu membangun piramida karena ditopang surplus makanannya,” kata Prof. Thomas Logan, pakar sejarah Mesir. 

Berkat Sungai Nil, tanah Mesir menghasilkan gandum melimpah, yang tidak hanya menghidupi rakyatnya tapi juga berperan sebagai fondasi peradaban. 

Swasembada pangan menciptakan stabilitas dalam negeri dan memberi ruang bagi seni dan sains berkembang. Mesir Kuno pun berdiri kokoh di panggung sejarah.

Sebaliknya, Irlandia di abad ke-19 mencatat pelajaran pahit tentang rapuhnya ketahanan pangan. Ketika gagal panen kentang melanda, bencana kemanusiaan pun tercipta. 

Seperempat penduduknya tewas atau bermigrasi. Dari Irlandia kita belajar: tanpa ketahanan pangan, jangankan mencapai kesejahteraan, kelangsungan negeri pun tak pasti.

Jepang belajar dari sejarah ini. Di abad ke-20, Jepang menetapkan ketahanan pangan sebagai prioritas, memastikan rakyatnya punya cukup makan di masa damai maupun perang. 

Bagi Jepang, negara yang rakyatnya kenyang dan punya gizi yang seimbang adalah negara yang kuat—siap menghadapi segala turbulensi dari dalam maupun luar negeri. 

Di dunia yang kini rentan terguncang oleh krisis pasokan, banyak negara pun sering dibuat kelimpungan mengamankan kebutuhan pangannya.

Di saat krisis besar, akan terjadi prinsip nafsi-nafsi. Setiap negara akan memprioritaskan memberi makan warganya sendiri ketimbang membantu negara lain—ini realita yang harus dipahami. 

Di sini, kita kembali diingatkan bahwa ketahanan pangan adalah tameng sunyi yang menjaga kedaulatan, keberlangsungan, dan harga diri bangsa.

Sejarah mengajarkan bahwa kekuatan sejati suatu bangsa dimulai dari benih pangan yang ditanam di tanah sendiri—bukan di tanah bangsa lain. 

Benih kecil itu tak hanya menjamin kehidupan generasi saat ini, tapi juga menjanjikan kesejahteraan dan keberlanjutan bagi generasi mendatang.

Bismillah, Indonesia segera swasembada pangan 🇮🇩
Pemain yang hebat di dalam dan di luar lapangan. Benteng kokoh di klub dan di timnas. 

@rizkyridhoramadhani